An American team of scientists led by epidemiologist Dr. Rachel Baker of Princeton University in the state of New Jersey has found out with the help of two simulation studies that allegedly contact restrictions and hygiene rules as well as the wearing of a mouth and nose protector in the corona pandemic lead to people becoming more susceptible to infection with other communicable diseases once the measures are lifted. Two seasonal pathogens – influenza virus A (IAV) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) – led the researchers to this assumption in simulations. German experts evaluate this as problematic, speculative and consider it open to interpretation or misunderstanding. The current short-lived, corona-related AHA rules protect against infection with the SARS CoV-2 virus and lead to a decrease in the number of cases of other respiratory pathogens as well. As a result, the southern hemisphere experienced a low level of influenza cases after the end of the winter there. However, Baker and her team claim that the current short-term measures mean that there will be an increase in certain infections with a time lag – in winter 2021/22. Virologist Professor Dr. Gülsah Gabriel, who conducts other research at the Heinrich-Pette-Institute in Hamburg, emphasizes that these statements are problematic, since the variety of viruses varies from winter to winter and the effectiveness of existing vaccines also varies. In addition, influenza viruses are known to mutate rapidly, i.e. they change and are adaptable. Professor Dr. Bernd Salzweger, an infectiologist at the University Hospital in Regensburg, has a similar view. In his opinion, no mathematical models can be used to determine the dynamics of flu waves, for example. Therefore, a year-long abstinence from certain pathogens would certainly be problematic, but not the short-lived application of the corona rules. Gabriel also points out that wearing a mouth and nose protector reduces the risk of co-infection, i.e. people could become infected with two pathogens at the same time, which can be particularly dangerous for vulnerable groups in our society. The expert therefore strongly recommends flu vaccinations in the coming winter.
